I have recently been trying to discuss with AI to explore the underlying logic of trading and investment, and in the end, the discussion is very close to what Brother Lee said:

The fundamental unpredictability of the market makes the continuous pursuit of predictive accuracy futile and dangerous, easily leading to overconfidence and vulnerability in the face of "unknown unknowns."

We need to deeply understand the limitations of our knowledge, and we must abandon the illusion of certainty. Based on this, we should improve risk management and adaptability as much as possible.

Ultimately, we need to form a trading philosophy based on probabilistic thinking, emphasizing risk management, pursuing system resilience, and long-term survival, rather than hoping for a "home run" from a single event. The core goal shifts from "predicting the future" to "maintaining a favorable position and surviving in an uncertain future."