Crypto Assets Market Weekly: Bitcoin Continues to Rebound, US Dollar Index Hits Three-Year Low

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) continued its upward momentum, opening at $83,733.07 and ultimately closing at $85,177.34, with a weekly increase of 1.72% and a fluctuation of 4.06%. This marks the second consecutive week of rebound for BTC, but the market lacks sufficient upward momentum, and trading volume has significantly shrunk. The BTC price has been operating outside of the descending channel for two weeks in a row and is currently testing the key technical indicator of the 200-day moving average.

In terms of the macro environment, the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff war" has entered the "negotiation" phase of its second stage. The preliminary negotiation results with Japan were not as expected, putting the U.S. government in a difficult position. Major target countries have responded strongly, while secondary target countries are taking a harder stance, with countries clearly adopting a strategy of trading time for space. In fact, as the U.S. confronts the world on tariff issues, the pressure it faces itself has also reached unprecedented levels.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech this Wednesday stating, "At present, we are fully capable of waiting for more clear information before considering adjustments to our policy stance." The Federal Reserve's attitude of maintaining the status quo has brought triple pressures back to Washington from the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets.

In terms of economic data, consumer confidence remains low, and the business community is confused about production plans. Wall Street continues to sell off long positions and reduce trading volume without waiting for assistance from the government or the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indexes all fell consecutively this week, recording declines of 2.62%, 1.5%, and 1.33% respectively, with trading volume significantly decreasing.

The bond market also performed poorly. The yield on the 2-year government bond continued to decline to 3.7580%, and the 10-year yield fell to 4.4960%, remaining at a high level. The risks in the bond market are mainly concentrated in long-term government bonds, and the momentum of last week's 11.25% surge indicates that liquidity has reached a critical situation amid significant selling.

The US Dollar Index has seen a continuous decline for four weeks, dropping to 99.171% this week. Funds are flowing from the US to Europe. The decline in the Dollar Index reflects the drop in the stock market while the bond market has failed to absorb the outflow of funds. Capital outflow is the situation that the US is least willing to see.

In the Crypto Assets market, the on-chain selling pressure from short-term and long-term holders has continued to weaken this week, significantly decreasing compared to last week. The total on-chain selling volume dropped to 107810.75 BTC for the week, with short-term holders accounting for 103713.35 BTC and long-term holders for 4097.4 BTC. The outflow of BTC from exchanges persists, reaching 19467.31 BTC this week.

Currently, the long-term holders are still playing a stabilizing role, with a net increase of nearly 100,000 BTC this week. As the price rebounds, the overall floating loss level of the short-term holders has decreased to 8%.

In terms of capital flow, the stablecoin channel has achieved the highest weekly inflow scale since January, exceeding $950 million. The net inflow of funds in the ETF channel has surpassed $10 million, and BTC's recent performance has consistently outperformed the Nasdaq index.

According to a certain indicator, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.125, indicating that the market is in a rising relay period.

Overall, despite the uncertainty in the macro environment, the Bitcoin market remains relatively resilient, continuing to show a rebound trend. However, market participants still need to closely monitor changes in the global economic situation and regulatory policies, as well as the flow of funds from institutional investors, as these factors will continue to influence the direction of the Crypto Assets market.