Geopolitical situation triggers fluctuations, crypto market consolidates at high levels

Recent geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in risk aversion in the market, and the crypto market is showing signs of fluctuation and adjustment. Mainstream cryptocurrencies are exhibiting diverging trends, with Bitcoin experiencing a high-level correction and Ethereum's momentum weakening after a rebound. Although the liquidity of altcoins has improved, they are facing obstacles in making further gains.

Overall, the market is at the end of a consolidation phase, and short-term waiting is needed for capital breakthroughs. Investors can patiently observe whether the structure of altcoins strengthens and signs of capital inflow in mainstream coins.

1. Macroeconomic Environment Analysis

The Federal Reserve maintains its expectation of two rate cuts unchanged, but due to upward revisions in inflation and downward revisions in the economy, the rate cut path is becoming more conservative. September is expected to be the first rate cut point, and core inflation may rise to 3.0% by the end of the year.

2. Fund Flow and Mainstream Coin Analysis

This week, ETF net inflows reached $2.8 billion, with stablecoin issuance increasing by $2.3 billion. The over-the-counter stablecoin premium has risen.

Bitcoin is in a fluctuating upward range, with chips strengthening above $103,000. Ethereum is performing weaker than Bitcoin, with funds continuously flowing back into Bitcoin. The increase in active addresses for Ethereum may indicate a potential completion of phase bottoming.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

The issuance of stablecoins decreased by 27% month-on-month, at a moderately low level. The net inflow of ETF funds was $1.34 billion, an increase of $320 million month-on-month. The supply from long-term holders reached a new high, while the supply from short-term holders declined, indicating a long-term bullish outlook but potential consolidation in the short term.

The data from the wallet addresses shows that the proportion of addresses holding 100-1000 bitcoins has increased, reflecting the entry of medium-sized investors. URPD shows that strong support has formed in the range of 93,000-98,000 USD and 103,000-106,000 USD.

Overall, the market is in a high-level consolidation phase, and it is still necessary to observe the breakthrough of the capital situation and the improvement of the structure of altcoins in the short term. Investors can maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude and pay attention to the changes in the trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies.