The Fed will announce the interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight. Currently, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.5% in August is relatively high, while the expectation of a rate cut in September is relatively strong.

If a rate cut of 25 basis points is announced tonight, the market is expected to rise directly, with an anticipated increase of 5000-10000 points; if the interest rate remains unchanged, a slight upward fluctuation may occur; if Powell releases hawkish statements (such as indicating no plans to cut rates or no rate cuts this year), it could trigger a sell-off, which would be bearish. However, currently, Powell is more likely to lean towards neutral or dovish, as the Trump administration has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut rates, while on the other hand, data shows that inflation is controllable, and tariff issues (including negotiations with the EU and China) have also become stable.

If a bearish pullback occurs, the first target is 117200 points, the second target is 116000 points, and the probability of breaking below 116000 points tonight is relatively low. If it breaks 120000 and holds, one can go long accordingly, but be cautious of false breakouts that lure in buyers. Long-term spot positions can continue to be held, while ultra-short-term trades need to be well-defended, and specific operational price levels will be notified temporarily.