Bitcoin May Break $1 Million in 2028: A Logical Analysis

In this conversation, Kyle Chasse and Arthur Hayes delve into the logic of Bitcoin potentially breaking the $1 million mark before 2028. The main points are as follows:

1. The world is entering a phase of the collapse of the dollar-dominated order, and the continuously expanding fiscal deficit and debt structure in the United States will drive long-term inflation and asset repricing.

2. Bitcoin is transitioning from "high Beta asset of Nasdaq" to "a hedge against the decline of American exceptionalism."

3. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury support the market through operations such as treasury bond repurchases, creating a new round of momentum for risk assets.

4. The expansion rate of the fiscal deficit under the Trump administration is faster than during the Biden era, which will further drive up the price of Bitcoin.

5. Extremely loose monetary policy may occur in 2026-2027, driving the price of Bitcoin to its peak.

6. Institutional investors indirectly increase their Bitcoin exposure through listed companies, and this trend may continue.

7. Bitcoin and gold are increasingly moving in tandem, starting to decouple from the stock market.

8. The volatility of the bond market is a key indicator; whenever the bond market becomes more volatile, it is a moment of monetary easing, which is precisely the environment where Bitcoin performs best.

9. Bitcoin is gradually shedding the "tech stock" label, and its price movement will become more independent.

Overall, changes in the macroeconomic environment, policy direction, and institutional participation collectively constitute the fundamental logic for Bitcoin potentially breaking through 1 million dollars.